Geoffrey Howard |
| Bashar al-Assad looks confident as he addresses crowds in Damascus in Mid January 2012. The Scotsman |
Whilst the international community awaits the report of the Arab Leagues ill-fated and controversial mission to Syria, the situation within the country grows more serious by the day. Pockets of opposition remain steadfast and increasing numbers of people are taking to the streets in defiance of Assad. In response, the government continues its brutal crackdown, despite the presence of Arab League monitors, and has ramped up its claims of foreign conspiracies and terrorist insurgencies. Indeed a number of bomb attacks in the capital in recent months, blamed on al-Qaida, had all of the hallmarks of a state engineered plot.
What is perhaps most troubling is that Assad’s demise appears by no means assured and the apparent confidence with which he addressed crowds in Damascus recently highlighted this. The regime remains, by and large, strong. Despite the enormous unrest seen in recent months, the balance of power has yet to move away from the regime’s core. The opposition is divided and much of the population remains on the sidelines, secretly supporting the resistance movements but, perhaps unsurprisingly, not wanting to incur the barbaric treatment of the regime. Horrific stories of torture, rape and murder at the hands of the regime emerge daily.
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| Syrians Protest in 2011 The Guardian |
The regime appears to remain united and strong and has yet to suffer splits or defections. The core pillars of the regime, namely the Ba’ath party, the army and security apparatus, the commercial elite and the ruling presidential family, appear to be relatively cohesive and steadfast. Perhaps this is unsurprising for a regime that has already successfully secured the father to son succession deemed to be so potentially destabilising for autocratic regimes. Without the trinity of, firstly, the emergence of a cogent opposition group, secondly, the appearance of divisions within the regime and the army, and thirdly, an end to the loyalty of the commercial sector, it appears more likely that Assad will remain in power.
In light of the deteriorating situation, what role should the international community play in the situation? The Syrian National Council, in a reversal of its earlier stance, has called for intervention, along the lines of the Libyan aerial support mission. The Qatari’s have called for ground troops to be deployed and the Arab League is considering what level of military power could be used. The international community continues to impose sanctions on Syria and to call for the end of Assad’s reign. Whilst it is extremely difficult to witness the atrocities across the country, this must remain a Syrian struggle. Liberal interventionists flush with the apparent success of the mission in Libya would be wrong in thinking a similar policy could be applied to Syria. In light of the apparent strength of the regime and the security apparatus, coupled with the complex and diverse ethnic and sectarian mix in Syria, any form of intervention seriously risks descending into a bloodbath of civil war and sectarian conflict. The Lebanese civil war should remain fresh in the minds of all policy makers.
Western powers may well continue to impose economic and political sanctions on Syria. However, such moves should be used selectively. Widespread sanctions are likely to hurt the people most seriously and could add credence to Assad’s claims of a foreign conspiracy. Furthermore, the Assad dynasty has neither feared nor shied away from international isolation in its 42 years of power. One of the toughest regional stances on Israel has been consistently favoured over the economic advantages of peace seen in Jordan and Egypt. A foreign policy based on patient diplomatic pressure and pragmatic strategic negotiation should be adopted. In this sense, President Obama, criticised by many for being slow to act, should be given more credence. Far from being caught off guard by the events of the Arab spring, he has chosen to closely and quietly observe events rather than rush in with rash and ill-considered pronouncements or actions.
It is important that we do not dismiss Assad as a lunatic dictator. He is skilled and ruthless, and is surrounded by a cohort of cronies whose singular aim it has been for 42 years to prevent the overthrow of the regime. They know what they are doing. The networks that support the mechanics of Arab autocracies such as Syria do not disappear overnight, nor can they be imposed from the outside. Any resolution to this conflict should result from a battle of wills between the Assad ruling elite and the Syrian people.
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