Jevon Whitby |
| Manu Brabo / AP Time Magazine Libyan Women and girls attend a celebration in Freedom Square in Misratah on October 23rd 2011, but the Libyan recovery still has an up hill struggle. |
Concern over the continuing violence in Libya is a serious problem for the UK and the rest of NATO, who have thus far acted as if their mission has been accomplished. In the face of continuing disorder, last week saw the Foreign Office partially play down the UK's accomplishments in Libya declaring that each of the 'Arab Spring' nations 'face enormous challenges' and that as Eastern Europe showed in 1989, progress 'takes time.'
It would be a great loss to 'back-peddle' British support on Libya simply because the situation remains unstable. Whatever your political standpoint, nations in the Islamic world that are friendly to the West, with democratically elected governments and large oil reserves, are rare, and Britain should not miss out on the benefits of sticking with its new ally.
The emerging problem is that despite the rebel victory, securing and refinancing the new Libya is still proving to be a difficult task for the National Transitional Council and its NATO allies. Two factors stand between Libya and progress: national and financial security. The first could be a major headache for the UK, the second is an opportunity to improve the situation.
Libya's new draft constitution lays out a number of measures for the creation of a democratic state including a 200 seat Assembly to be formed in June, with several special provisions including 10% of seats for women with strict banning of Gaddafi loyalists or doctrine.
This is an aspirational luxury of course. Far more critical for the survival of the interim government is the need for stable and enforceable law. In the first instance the style of the rebel's victory has created its own problems. Many of the heavily armed and locally formed militias, or 'thwar,' which defeated Gaddafi are refusing to disband, citing the need to security.
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Libyan rebels in a mixture of uniforms, on parade in Benghazi, the de facto rebel capital.
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The militia's concerns may be justified; the turn of the new year saw Abdullah Nakur, commander of Tripoli's Revolutionist Council announce the foiling of a terrorist plot to attack the capital's power grid system with black-market explosives. All nine of the captured men were ex-Gaddafi loyalists, only heightening the determination of many militias, who insist their presence is still required to forcefully guarantee protection of state-owned infrastructure and guarantee stability.
Yet the NTC and NATO are understandably wary of allowing regional militia control to continue indefinitely. Disorder continues most notably with the death of four Tripoli militia men last week in an escalated street battle with volunteers from Misrata over a trivial alleged robbery.
This uneasy situation led National Council Chairman Mustafa Abdel-Jalil to warn this week that Libya must be vigilant to avoid a new 'civil war.' Attempts to amalgamate the militias into new army and police units are on-going, with some groups agreeing to disarm before becoming manageable official state run units. Whether the new state can even continually pay the wages of the operation is unclear.
For foreign nations therefore, the initial priority is to stabilise Libya by making funds available for use by the interim government. It was the UK that flew in two stages an emergency package worth 1 billion dinars in Libyan banknotes from British currency printing firm De La Rue that kept the rebel government alive in its founding days. Having frozen foreign held assets of Gaddafi's regime, the UN Security Council finally lifted sanctions on the Libyan Central Bank in December, making a total contribution of 1.86 billion dinars (£929m) available from the UK to relieve Libyan cash availability problems.
Such transfers are not abstract diplomatic gestures; material cash is sorely needed to meet the basic logistical crisis facing Libya's people. Cash withdrawals are currently limited to 750 dinars (£400) a month in order to ration purchasing power, understandably placing great demand on street banks and fuelling the sense of crisis. Here perhaps is a difficult cycle, with the UK unwilling to commit greater funds without greater stability and the NTC unable to insure stability without the required money.
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| © 'an agent' flickr.com |
Perhaps the alternative to international aid could be investment from the oil industry. Oil production makes up 95% of Libya's export earnings and is its most vital business. So often considered a predatory industry, heavy market investment by the oil industry could prove to have unseen humanitarian consequences for Libya's destabilising cash supply problem. Total, ENI and UK based Heritage Oil have all moved back into Libya, with the Know Libya firm estimating that 1 million barrels are now being sold per day, at an approximate total value of £64m.
Nevertheless production is still far from full capacity (at roughly 54%,) and is being hampered by industrial unrest; this week saw Tripoli's port workers go on strike over wage shortages and alleged government corruption. Each day's instability potentially worsens the outlook for NATO involvement and market investment.
Despite NATO's new found caution, the National Transitional Council is likely to survive for the time being, despite disorder on the streets. The UK has already developed a modest but tangible sense of pride about the new Libya. It is now heavily invested both financially and morally in the 'Arab Spring,' hence support must be maintained. France and the United States are also unlikely to tolerate the collapse of the NTC during their presidential election years.
Instability and money supply issues must be dealt with in order for willing foreign investment to flow in. Should Libya deal with its demons, the future may well look promising. As for the UK, it is far too late to retract the support that cost £300m, so make the most of Libya’s strategic, political and business opportunities. If that isn't motivation enough, then the Foreign Office should imagine the political fallout if the UK were ever to abandon its hard fought progress.
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